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Gold reached its previous highs in 1980, at a time when Soviet tanks were rolling into Afghanistan, oil prices were being driven up by instability in the Middle East and the dollar was falling rapidly amid fears of a recession. Panicked investors sought refuge in the ultimate safe haven and the bullion price reached a record US$850 per ounce.

Yet despite these similarities, fundamental changes in the gold market mean that the two situations cannot be compared. In 1980, after surging from US$450 to US$850 in just five weeks, bullion prices collapsed to trade as low as US$300 a year later. This time round, the high price levels could be sustained a lot longer - and could go even higher.

One major difference between now and 1980 is that the current price rise has been slow and constant since 1999, with demand coming not only from traditional safe-haven seekers but also from other sources. Long-term investors now again see gold as a store of value and a hedge against persistent dollar weakness and rising inflation.

Another key difference is the decreasing supply of gold - output fell by 7% between 2001 and 2006 - and the shortage of substantial new projects as a result of reduced exploration in 1990s. Rising costs are likely to further constrain the development of new projects as well as existing production levels.

Zdroj: MineW

07.02.2008

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan