ZLATO – ,,hedge“ proti kríze, alebo inflácii

Settling almost at $900 an ounce, that's gotta make the gold bugs happy. Still, at $900 an ounce, gold is dirt cheap.

Inflation, that's how. The basket of goods and services that $875 could have bought you in 1980 now costs more than $2,200. Clearly, gold's got a lot of price action ahead of it to rightly claim its mantle as an inflation hedge.

Taken from this perspective, crude oil has done a much better job as a store of value. At current levels, crude's average price is much closer to its inflation-adjusted peak set in 1980 No, it's apparent that gold's more of a crisis hedge than an inflation hedge.

Why did the yellow metal decline in price? Well, there abounded in the world a crisis mentality that zenithed in 1980: the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the Islamic Revolution in Iran and, of course, runaway inflation.

Panicked investors didn't want fiat money. Those forces moderated. Inflation's subsequent rise was slow, not enough to engender fear. Gold swooned apace.

More importantly, though, fear is back: Fear of conflagration in the Middle East and fear of threats to oil supplies. Age-old traditions of hoarding physical wealth are being resurrected by the crisis mentality now pervading the globe.

It's easy to ascribe gold's price appreciation to inflation, but we should never lose sight of the fact that the yellow metal is often a better short-term gauge of fear than of inflation.

Zdroj: goldseek.com

14.01.2008

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan