ZLATO – je $1800 reálne?

Juerg Kiener, MD and CIO, Swiss Asia Capital said he expects 2008 to be rocky for metals. Gold is seen at USD 985-1050/oz, and may go up to USD 1500-1800/oz in 15-18 months, he said.

Base metals supply is low and a selloff risk remains on economic weakness, he added.

How is the world of commodities looking in 2008, given the economic news, which is given by the US?

I think we are going to have quite a rocky period in the first 3-6 months of the year particularly in economic sensitive commodities, which to larger extent is base metals, and to a lesser extent, energy. So what we are looking for is the commodity exposure, which is going to be required needless of what happens to the economy.

I assume you are talking specifically about gold, what kind of targets are you working with and do you think this is a sustainable run for gold or is it a bit of a safe haven strategy playing out because of what’s happening in other asset classes.

Basically, gold is money and anti-credit. So as long as you see Central Banks bailing out their friends by interest rate cuts which are not compensating investors for inflation, the fly to something which will basically maintaining the purchasing power will continue, so gold will stick out on that.

So from a relative point of view, it hasn’t really moved up like all the other commodities and has some catch up to do. So we are looking at this gap to close significantly.

For us, the first target is between USD 985/oz and USD 1050/oz where we are seeing that there is going to be a bit of a struggle because it’s a four digit number but we think that its just temporary and we look at numbers between USD 1500/oz and 1800/oz as the first target in the next 15-18 months whilst much higher levels to be achieved by 2010-2012.

So we got to do a lot, just gold producers in the world which has the problem in producing metals because of energy, so the supply side is going to be capped as well as influence some of the base metal producers. So I don’t think the risk will be that big as supply is being taken off the markets.

Zdroj: GoldE

31.01.2008

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan