ZLATO – NBF revidovala predpoveď

National Bank Financial zvýšila svoju predpoveď pre zlato na $725/oz a striebro na $14.50/oz v 2008. V 2009 by zlato malo klesnúť na priemer $700/oz.

National Bank Financial metals analysts Tanya Jakusconek and Brian Christie Monday revised their future gold forecasts upward predicated on a "positive mix of historic price drivers and support gold market fundamentals."

Their revised estimates remain unchanged for this year at $675/oz average price, then increase from the previous $675/oz to $725/oz for 2008, and are boosted from $625/oz to $700/oz in 2009. For 2010 forecasts were reviewed upward from $575/0z to $650/oz, and for 2011 onward $600/oz up from $525/oz. NBF also adjusted its silver price forecast to reflect a 50:1 ratio with the gold price.

The historic price drivers cited by Jakusconek and Christie include the U.S. dollar with a bias to the downside, higher inflation expectations as oil prices have recently rebounded over $80 barrel, and lower real interest rates. Meanwhile, the continued demand for base metals "is part of a broad-based commodity rally which is being fueled by a growing demand from Chinese industrialization and world GDP growth."

"For 2008 our higher gold price outlook of $725/oz over 2007 is based on currency being the main driver for the gold price, with higher oil prices, lower real interest rates and continued strong base metals also paying a role in addition to continued positive supply/demand fundamentals in the gold market," according to NBF's analysis.

"In 2009-2010 we anticipate a recovery in the U.S. dollar and lower oil and overall commodity prices over 2008 levels. Longer term, we are raising our long term price to $600/oz from $525/oz as this reflects the level at which we believe many companies are basing their long-term mine plans, and reserve/resource calculations," Jakusconek and Christie forecast. "In addition, looking at world cost structure ($375/oz), sustaining capital ($50/oz), development cost (at least $150/oz) and exploration expenditures ($25/oz), a $600/oz gold price is required to at least allow a company to stay in business."

The analysts forecast an average $13.50/oz silver price for this year, increased their prediction from $13.50 to $14.50/oz for 2008, revised the 2009 forecast upward from $12.50 to $14/oz, raised their 2010 forecast from $11.50 to $13/oz, and also boosted their long-term forecast from $10.50/oz to $12/oz.

Thomson Financial and NBF estimates are a consensus high of $700/oz and a consensus low of $622/oz an ounce with a consensus average of $673/oz for 2007.

Zdroj: minew


"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan