ZLATO – oslabenie až na $718

V prípade, že nastáva fáza korekcie, môže podľa niektorých prognóz zlato oslabiť až na úroveň $718/oz.

Gold may decline as low as $718 an ounce by February as jewelry demand drops with the close of the festival season in India, the world's biggest consumer of the precious metal, MF Global Ltd. said.

``The passage of the Indian religious and festival season as well as the upcoming Christmas season should slow demand for jewelry,'' Tom Pawlicki, an analyst with MF Global in New York, said in an e-mail interview. ``Gains in the remainder of this year will be limited or non-existent.''

The October-December period is the busiest season in India for jewelry sales, spurred by the wedding season and last week's Diwali, or the festival of light. Imports by the South Asian nation last month more than halved to 14 tons from a year earlier after prices surged, according to the Bombay Bullion Association.


Physical demand for jewelry fabrication should drop just because of the current position of the calendar,'' Pawlicki said.

Central Banks

Concern central banks in countries such as Spain and Switzerland could sell billion may limit gains in prices, he said. Under the terms of the Central Bank Gold Agreement, European banks agreed to sell 2,500 tons of the metal between 2004 and 2009.

MF Global joins UBS AG, Europe's largest bank by assets, in forecasting lower gold prices. UBS cut its one-month estimate to $750 an ounce on Nov. 13, one week after raising it to $850. The precious metal may fall as low as $725 an ounce before the end of the year and then rise to as high as $900 in the first three months of next year, RBC Capital Markets said yesterday.

Gold may trade between $718 and $732 in February and March, Pawlicki said. He predicted Aug. 24 the bullion would reach $730 an ounce by the end of the year.

Prices may climb higher next year if China and India, the fastest-growing major economies, continue to expand and their stock markets extend this year's record gains, he said. India's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, is up 47 percent since January and China's CSI 300 Index has more than doubled in the period.

``There are several signs of speculative excesses in both countries' stock markets,'' Pawlicki said. ``Higher gold prices would be contingent upon the absence of a massive stock market liquidation.

Zdroj: BLRG


"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan