ZLATO – predpoveď MKS na 2008

HIGH 2008: 1001.00 USD/OZ

LOW 2008: 780.00 USD/OZ

AVERAGE 2008: 872.00 USD/OZ

AVERAGE Q1 2008: 858.00 USD/OZ

AVERAGE Q2 2008: 880.00 USD/OZ

AVERAGE Q3 2008: 900.00 USD/OZ

AVERAGE Q4 2008:: 850.00 USD/OZ

COMMENT:

Over the year 2007, gold rose over 30% making it the 6th consecutive year of positive price performance. From a less predictable scenario over the last 2 years, mainly due to geopolitical tensions, the market shifted into a more rational and forecastable environment toward the end of 2007. The factors we expect to prevail next year are mainly a weaker USD, the subprime crisis and further diversifications by both the official and private sectors. We expect the USD to weaken further, mainly in H1 2008, on the back of slower growth and broader disinvestment out of the USD. These disinvestments are likely to flow into assets which are negatively correlated to the USD and/or not sensitive to the performance of the US economy. The forthcoming US elections are set to add additional volatility to the FX markets. We expect that the spreading impact of the recent subprime crisis will remain one of the major concerns in H1 2008.

The collateral damages will unfortunately be far reaching, spread globally and impact several sectors. Global liquidity will remain a key concern throughout 2008. It should also be noted that various central banks have expressed their intention to reduce some of their USD exposure and to consider an increase of their gold reserves. The expected launch of a gold contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange could also lead to additional buying interest. These factors, amongst others, should lead to additional capital inflow into gold. Gold as a mean of diversification into a safe heaven asset will remain a key factor for the year to come. In 2008 we should again expect several volatile trading sessions with erratic movements both up and down. We would not be surprised to see gold moving briefly above the 1000 USD/oz level.

Zdroj: www.goldinvestdirect.com

16.01.2008

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan