ZLATO – predpovede na 2008

Analytici indikujú dosiahnutie úrovní od $870 až do $1400/oz. Ako to bude v skutočnosti uvidíme za 12 mesiacov. Jedno je však isté. Všetky predpovede sú pre zlato pozitívne.

After closing out 2007 with an impressive 31.5% gain, spot gold started the new year with a new record high of $861.80 an ounce, surpassing the previous high of $850 recorded on January 21, 1980. Gold bugs celebrated the immediate returns, and remain confident the returns will continue throughout 2008 - but some near-term volatility may be in the books.


Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers suggests investors “tread with utmost care,” in the near-term as price moves may now become “highly unpredictable” in either direction.


“...the mere fact that speculative positions are approaching a quarter of a million contracts and that the addition of not too many more of them would tilt the market into heavily overbought territory should also be in the back of the minds of latecomers to this party,” he said.

Gold

Even Ned Schmidt, long-time gold bug and publisher of The Value View Gold Report, said in the latest edition of “Gold Thoughts,” that today's price may be overbought, advising traders to “buy low, don't buy high!”


James Moore echoed this sentiment in an e-mailed market update today, saying the market is likely to remain “quite volatile over the next few weeks,” as the various hedge funds and commodity indexes begin their reallocation process.


Nadler said the move today suggests that funds may have made additional moves into gold “with Pakistan's situation remaining on edge and global investors obviously still nervous about financial markets.”


In the longer term, Kitco’s predictions indicate a likely gold price channel of $640 to $940 in 2008, with the average price possibly near $730 per ounce - 5% higher than last year’s record-breaking average.


Schmidt indicated that $1,400 gold could be possible on the horizon, due to the bursting mortgage market bubble and the ensuing crisis in the banking and finance sector.


Mark O’Byrne, director of Gold & Silver Investments Ltd., forecasts gold will reach the psychological level of $1,000 per ounce in 2008, could rally as high as $1,400 and will likely finish 2008 above $1,000 per ounce.


“While this may seem like a large move it would only be a less than 25% increase in price,” said O’Byrne. “Given the current macroeconomic and geopolitical climate this seems more than likely.”


In the latest edition of the Gold Monitor, Martin Murenbeeld, Chief Economist of Dundee Group of Companies, calculated a probability-weighted average gold price of $860.50 for 2008 – derived from a forecast that extends out six quarters through 2009-Q2.


“The U.S. dollar must decline further, of that there is little doubt,” he simply said.

Zdroj: www.commodityonline.com

04.01.2008

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan

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