ZLATO – prekoná sa rekord v 2008?

Gold will rise to a record in 2008, increasing for an unprecedented eighth consecutive year, as investors seek protection from accelerating inflation, metals analysts say.

Gold will probably average $800 an ounce, compared with $696 this year, according to the median estimate of 37 traders, analysts and investors surveyed. Gold has gained 30 percent to $827.20 an ounce in London this year, its best year since 1979, when the Iranian revolution crippled crude- oil exports and U.S. inflation surpassed 13 percent.

``I do see gold hitting a new high at some point in the first half,'' said UBS AG's John Reade, who is tied as the most- accurate analyst in the London Bullion Market Association's 2007 gold-price forecast. Gold rose as record oil prices drove up inflation, and supplies from South Africa, the world's biggest producer, dropped to the lowest in 84 years.

INFLATION

U.S. consumer prices increased 0.8 percent in November, the most in more than two years. Inflation in the 13-nation euro region accelerated to 3.1 percent in November, the fastest since 2001, according to Eurostat. Japanese consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in October, the first gain of 2007.

``The two stories for 2008 are going to be the subprime credit crisis and inflationary issues,'' said Ross Norman, director of London-based data provider TheBullionDesk.com and a former trader of physical bullion. Gold may climb to ``pretty well above $1,000 next year,'' he said.

Investment demand for gold may ``easily'' rise to 500 tons, worth about $13 billion, compared with 384 tons last year, said Philip Klapwijk, chairman of London-based research company GFMS Ltd.

``We see the investor base for gold widening,'' he said. ``We're still talking small numbers compared to equity flows or other assets.''

MINE SUPPLY

Gold is still a positive story, because of mine supply, which continues to be highly constrained, said Michael Jansen, an analyst at JPMorgan Securities Ltd. in London.

Prices may gain as much as $100 in 2008, because of production shortages, said Graham Birch, the London-based head of BlackRock Inc.'s natural resources team that manages $40 billion. ``The price needs to be north of $1,000,'' he said. ``$800 is not enough to reverse the gradual decline in production.''

Zdroj: goldseek.com

02.01.2008

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan