ZLATO – pripravené na rekordný výkon

Podľa prieskumu GFMS je zlato do 12 mesiacov pripravené prekonať minuloročný vrchol $730/oz.

Gold prices could exceed last year’s 26 year high of $730 an ounce within the next 12 months due to a weaker dollar, rising geopolitical tensions and an investment led rally, according to the annual survey by GFMS, the metals consultancy.


GFMS said given the general favourable backdrop and the still low level of participation form institutional and private inventors in most countries, there remains considerable upside potential for gold even as the current rally enters its seventh year.


“GFMS’s view is that an investor led rally into at least the mid-$700s is indeed probable over the next year or so,” it said.


“The strength of the gold price in 2007-to date, the continued moving up of the floor at which physical buying kicks in to support the metal and a further, albeit smaller, decline in gold supply is also expected to boost investor confidence in the yellow metal,” it said.


Although, GFMS predicts further price growth, underlying physical demand for the metal continues to wane as higher prices deter jewellery buyers.


GFMS said global jewellery demand fell to 2,280 tonnes last year in more than 15 years, and 16 per cent below last year and 30 per cent down from its peak in 1997. This decline was partly offset by a small increase in demand from the electronics sector.


While physical consumption of the metal has weakened, investment demand increased to a record 640 tonnes, up almost eight per cent on the year and almost double the amount seen in 2003.


But a further fall in mine production combined with reduction selling from central banks of their gold reserves led to a decline in gold supply last year by five per cent. GFMS said global mine output fell three per cent to 2,471 tonnes, a 10 year low. The biggest declines were seen in the traditional gold mining producers South Africa, United States, Australia and Canada.


Despite the increase in gold selling prices, mine production costs continued to rise to an average of $317 an ounce last year, up $45 from 2005. Higher energy and labour charges were behind the rise.


However, gold scrap supply gained 25 per cent to 1,108 tonnes last year, driven by higher gold prices. Scrap gold accounted for 28 per cent of total gold supplies last year.


The gold price averaged $603.77 a troy ounce last year, up 36 per cent on the previous year, and the second-largest annual average after 1980’s record of $614.50. Gold prices hit a peak of $730 in May, the highest level since the record of $850 in January 1980.


Gold also appreciated in other currencies too, with a 34 per cent gain in South African Rand prices, a 21 per cent rise in the yen gold price and a 8.7 per cent advance in the Euro gold price.


While the gold price’s gain was a strong in a historical context, it was relatively mild compared with other metal price moves last year. The average annual silver price gained 60 per cent, palladium was up 59 per cent, zinc rose 137 per cent, copper 83 per cent and nickel 65 per cent


Source: FT

04.04.2007

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan