ZLATO – stále v rastúcom trende

Gold is seeing some of the same supports experienced during its last run to record highs in 1979-1980, when the Shah of Iran was overthrown, oil surged to all-time highs and U.S. inflation surpassed 13%. Last year, gold saw its seventh straight year of positive returns and best performance since that era. The average closing spot gold price of $695.85 in 2007 was the highest ever, trouncing the 1980 average price of $614.50.

Oil is trading above $97 per barrel today, adding more than $2 following dismal U.S. employment and housing reports. Crude hit an all-time high of $100.05 last week.

“You’ve got high oil prices, which means petro-dollars flowing into the Middle East, which is a traditional gold buying area,” Cross said. “And with the uncertainty of the geopolitical stuff going on, it’s expected that they would be buying a lot of gold.”

Despite the recent record-high price, gold is still quite short of 1980’s inflation-adjusted high of $2,200. But that number may not be out of range in the future, Cross said, especially when considering the thin margins between supply and demand in the gold market.

“It must be (within range),” she said. “This year, we’re looking for a high of $900, and I think that it’s easily doable. Then beyond that, at over $900 I think you start saying that possibly more scrap will start coming on, that kind of thing, and the market will adjust.

“The other thing is we have to watch very closely how the jewellery market will begin to respond. Basically, the jewellers will take orders and put jewellery into stock. What hasn’t sold over the Christmas period will either be returned as recycling or there will have to be a reduction in price. But then as the price goes up, every time a jeweller has to replace his stock, he’s having to replace it at a higher and higher price because the cost of raw materials is going up.”

Zdroj: commodityonline.com

10.01.2008

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan