ZLATO - tanečný bál sa začína

Gold, seen for a generation as the Cinderella of the financial community, rallied and reached an all-time high surpassing its previous best of $850 an ounce – a level last seen in January 1980. In 2007, a gold investor would have enjoyed a 32 per cent gain on top of the 20 per cent-plus increases seen for most of the previous five years. If gold is indeed Cinderella – and the equity and bond markets perhaps the two ugly sisters – then we have a very good idea who should be going to the ball in 2008.

Assessing gold is complex because, like no other asset class, it has a fantastically wide yet powerful number of drivers – economic, geopolitical and, not least of all, gold's own supply/demand fundamentals. The first two are well reported and the outlook for both in 2008 is constructive for gold – with increasing inflationary concerns added to the "plus" column but offset by prospects of a more doveish White House foreign policy late next year. If gold is indeed the barometer of the world economic mindset, then the mercury is running high and it suggests greed has given way to fear, in spades. But these factors alone do not fully explain the big change in gold's fortunes.

Gaining easy access to gold was important but a strong reason to buy gold essential – and it was the shift in the supply/ demand balance that signalled the flow of funds through these freshly forged conduits. There has been much talk of "peak oil" – but the same applies to gold. Global goldmine production peaked in 2003 and is in gradual decline.

In former years, higher gold prices would have been met by the choking off of jewellery demand and increased producer selling. But market participants are now so confident of the strength of the bull run, as jewellery demand has not eased significantly, that prices have run higher, reinforcing the mindset for further gains.

So what does this year have in store? The gold chart up to mid-2007 was "constructive" before going exponential. BD forecasts an average price of $976 in 2008 with a possible high of $1,250. But like the fairy godmother in Cinderella, we urge caution, while believing that like all good stories this one has the legs to run.

Zdroj: www.redorbit.com

17.01.2008

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan