4 riziká pre globálnu ekonomiku

Ekonóm Nouriel Roubini aj naďalej upozorňuje na štyri riziká pre globálnu ekonomiku: eurozóna je v hlbokej recesii; slabnutie čínskej ekonomiky; ekonomický rast v USA pravdepodobne dosahuje svoj vrchol; geopolitické riziká na Strednom Východe vzrastajú.

“First, the eurozone is in deep recession, especially in the periphery, but now also in the core economies, as the latest data show an output contraction in Germany and France.

…Second, there is now evidence of weakening performance in China and the rest of Asia. In China, the economic slowdown underway is unmistakable. Export growth is down sharply, turning negative vis-à-vis the eurozone’s periphery. Import growth, a sign of future exports, has also fallen.

…Third, while US data have been surprisingly encouraging, America’s growth momentum appears to be peaking. Fiscal tightening will escalate in 2012 and 2013, contributing to a slowdown, as will the expiration of tax benefits that boosted capital spending in 2011.

…Finally, geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, owing to the possibility of an Israeli military response to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. While the risk of armed conflict remains low, the current war of words is escalating, as is the covert war in which Israel and the US are engaged with Iran; and now Iran is lashing back with terrorist attacks against Israeli diplomats.”

Článok: http://pragcap.com/roubini-the-4-downside-risks-to-the-economy

23.02.2012