Ďalšia zaujímavá komodita - urán

Bude urán v Číne druhou najžiadanejšou komoditou? Po zlate sa krajina obracia k nahromadeniu zásob tohto minerálu. Ak si k Číne pripočítame dopyt z Indie, tak investície do uránovej oblasti môžu byť veľmi zaujímavé.

Is uranium turning out to be the hottest commodity—hotter than gold—in China? China has been trying to amass gold reserves to emerge as the largest yellow metal owning country in the world. But China’s craze for commodity investment does not just stop by gold alone. Uranium is one commodity that the dragon country is heavily investing in these days.

The ‘truth' on uranium is the secular (long-term) bullish case never went away—people and human behavior just accentuated a cyclical (short-term) correction. It's human nature that people overreact and chase prices on the way up, and, while in a panic, bail shares on the way down. I have been on both the "buy" and "sell-side" and I know how people do not want to buy when they should—and vice versa. (It is called "group think.") Human nature also has people mistakenly thinking in absolutes, when in the end most things are relative. Even "experts" do this. These factors often wrongly affected investors' perspectives, and I would say this was the case with the uranium sector. Investors should remain objective as well as aware of this.

As for uranium supplies, the continuing theme of 2008 was "lowered production guidance becomes a norm." My total of production cuts for 2008 was 4.7mlbs, which by way of relative comparison was roughly two months of a typical year's spot market volume. At the margin, that is a bullish number as well. Also, people do not realize the rate of existing mine depletion. Based upon current estimates, by 2020, six of the world's top 10 uranium mines will be depleted, and the top two mines will be entering the latter stages of production.

In summary, while many unknowingly ditched the sector, arguably the uranium space has a better price floor and verifiable new pricing paradigm in place than most—if not all—commodities. To use the street phrase, for uranium what has transpired in the last year—"It's all good." The exogenous events significantly boosting uranium demand for China and India are far greater than the minimal and distant "ifs" of private sector reactor delays. Not to mention China has actually boosted reactor construction; while India made no delays and entered the world market."

Článok: www.commodityonline.com/news/Hot-Commodities-Uranium-to-beat-Gold-in-China-29910-3-1.html

13.07.2010