Dolár lepší ako EUR

Ekonomické výsledky v eurozóne nenasvedčujú zlepšeniu ani v 2010. Ak je predpokladom, že USA už potenciálne dosiahli dno, tak v takomto prípade dolár má lepšie vyhliadky oproti Euru.

Last month, the IMF downgraded its forecast on the Eurozone, expecting the region’s economy to fall 4.8 percent in 2009. And for 2010, while all other economies are expected to grow, the Eurozone is expected to fall more.

Then Germany and France, the two largest economies in the Eurozone, shocked the market this week by posting actual growth for the second quarter!

On top of that, central banks are now upgrading economic forecasts for 2009, a year that was first thought to be a complete disaster. And the 2010 numbers are being boosted even more.

In fact, the European Central Bank has now revised its expectations for 2009 and 2010: Expecting just a slight contraction in 2009 and growth in 2010.

So is this recovery sustainable? Will 2011 be a return to normalcy or will recession return?

The IMF has published a study on similar recessions, those highly synchronized across global economies with the added element of financial crisis. The study concluded that they tend to be deeper and take a slower path to recovery than other recessions. These comparisons suggest that the global economy will bounce around the bottom for another two years or more.

In this risk-centric investment climate, what’s bad for the global economy has been good for the dollar, and there’s no reason to think that will change.

With that, I think the U.S. dollar will again regain its appeal. Meanwhile, as markets focus more and more on the near-term growth prospects for global economies, the dollar should begin to gain favor on a relative growth basis. It’s potentially a win-win scenario setting up for the dollar.

Článok:www.commodityonline.com/news/Why-US-dollar-will-regain-its-appeal-20432-3-1.html

18.08.2009