Investovanie do agri komodít sa vyplatí

Do roku 2050 globálna populácia vzrastie o 35%, čo bude mať za následok zvýšenie dopytu po potravinových komoditách a následne aj vyššie ceny. Takže éra lacných potravín sa už skončila. Ďalšia cesta cenového vývoja bude už len nahor.

The global population is set to grow by 35% to around 9.1 billion by 2050, as Standard Chartered points out in a recent report, and almost all this growth will be in developing countries.

As people get richer, they eat more protein, which will further bolster demand for grains to use as feed for livestock. The upshot is that food production will have to increase by 70% by 2050.

The upshot, says Standard Chartered, is that feeding the world is possible, but "at a cost that will inevitably mean" higher prices. This is "the end of cheap food".

The compelling long-term bullish case for agricultural commodities remains intact, agrees Deutsche Bank. But it has been "temporarily" overshadowed by the financial crisis, which weakened demand, and record harvests in some countries. Wheat, corn and soybeans have lagged the rest of the agricultural complex amid strong harvests in America, the top exporter of these commodities.

Overall, however, demand for softs has not been affected by the crisis as much as for other commodities. And soaring prices in other markets this year are a reminder that "even with a relatively small drop in supply, prices can react violently to the upside".

11.11.2009