Komoditný supercyklus do roku 2030

Nachádzame sa v etape býčieho komoditného supercyklu, ktorý môže trvať aj viac, ako 20 rokov. Samozrejme treba počítať aj s obdobiami, kedy komodity oslabujú, ako napríklad od polovice 2008 do začiatku 2009.

In 2007, she claimed the current commodities super-cycle would last another 20 years. But given the economic implosion since that time, could it still be true? "Absolutely," says Carmel Daniele, founder, CEO and CIO of CD Capital. "The crisis that occurred last year after Lehman's collapse just interrupted the cycle," she explains, adding that it "is actually going to seal the next stage of the super-cycle. . .it will make it stronger and last even longer."

If you look at history, on average, the past cycles have lasted an average of about 20 or 30 years. In the 1880s, the U.S. industrialization super-cycle lasted 40 years, and that involved the industrialization and urbanization of only 100 million people. In the 1960s, after World War II the Japanese industrialization super-cycle lasted 20 years—and that involved 30 million people. And the one we have now with China and India, which is only nine years in, involves the urbanization and industrialization of 3 billion people. So, I wouldn't be surprised if it lasted longer than 20 years.

But historically, these super-cycles have a lot of violent swings up and down, but the trend is up. So, you have to be a long-term investor in order to be able to survive the dips. They also provide a lot of opportunities when there are dips.

Gold is a psychological metal; it does well basically when everything else isn't doing well. That's why you need to have some in your portfolio. I don't have my whole portfolio in it; I just have a small interest in precious metals. And we're also looking at some projects with platinum and palladium only because they're used in motor vehicles and China's going to increase the number of cars, so I am still very bullish on these as well.

Článok:

www.commodityonline.com/news/Commodities-super-cycle-to-last-for-20-years-20488-3-1.html

20.08.2009