Náhrada za dolár zatiaľ nie je

Mnohí by si priali, aby americký dolár ako svetová rezervná mena bol nahradený inou menou, ale v súčasnosti ani v krátkej budúcnosti žiadna z mien túto úlohu nemôže napĺniť. Takže svet ešte asi chvíľu s dolárom zostane. Avšak zlato bude žiariť...

Presently, there is a vacuum in international affairs coming from the decline in the moral and economic stature of the United States. It is a vacuum because no other country or organization has the credibility, legitimacy and capability to fill the gap. This is particularly true in monetary and financial affairs. By default, the U.S. dollar is de facto the main supranational key currency used to finance international trade and investment.

It is one thing to wish to replace an international key currency, it is quite another to implement such a wish. It's not that a series of bad policies has weakened the U.S. economy and the U.S. dollar, possibly for many years to come. But the requirements for a national or international currency to be used as an investment vehicle are such that there is currently no credible successor to the U.S. dollar as a key currency. There are three fundamental characteristics that a reserve currency must have: it must inspire confidence, it must be fully convertible into other currencies, and it must have a high degree of liquidity. With the possible exception of the euro, no other currency meets these criteria, although creditor countries will likely increase the share of gold in their official reserves, pushing the price of gold way up in the coming years.

Therefore, for better or for worse, the world economy needs the U.S. dollar and will keep using the U.S. dollar for the foreseeable future, before a new international monetary system can be designed many years down the road. —Therefore, you may ask where do I think the U.S. dollar is heading? With $2 trillion fiscal deficits under Treasury Secretary Geithner' watch, a zero interest rate (negative real interest rate) and an open bar printing monetary policy by the Bernanke Fed, there is currently an oversupply of U.S. dollars. This should herald a period of continued weakness for the U.S. dollar, possibly for a year or two. Then, the U.S. dollar should reach an important and secular climax low vis-a-vis the other fiat currencies, but not vis-a-vis gold whose future looks brighter by the day.

Článok:www.globalresearch.ca/index.php

31.07.2009