Panika a emócie, nie fundamenty

Turbulencia v uránovom sektore bola v posledných dňoch spôsobená emóciami a panikou (havária v jadrovej elektrárni Fukushima ) a nie fundamentami. V roku 2010 len 70% dopytu bolo pokrytých ťažbou, 30% z existujúcich zásob, obzvlášť ruských. Zásoby a sekundárne zdroje ponuky klesajú, nové uránové bane sa väčšinou nachádzajú v nestabilných a skorumpovaných krajinách.

Dopyt po energii bude vzrastať, obzvlášť po tej lacnejšej. V súčasnosti je v globále podiel jadrovej energie asi 13-14%. Aj napriek zvýšenej opatrnosti a určite aj novým bezpečnostným opatreniam krajiny ako Rusko, USA, India, Čína, Južná Kórea a ďalšie budú pokračovať v nukleárnej renesancii, ktorej dôsledkom bude zvýšený dopyt po uráne.

World markets melted down (pun intended) and ran on emotion and panic for the first three days of the past week. We’ve had a rally in New York over the last two days.

However, 425 of the world’s 443 nuclear power reactors are still operating. China, Russia, South Korea, and the United States have announced they will press forward with ambitious plans for increased electricity output from nuclear power. These countries have been driving the nuclear renaissance along with India. It seems certain there will be delays in plant design, permitting, and construction around the world. Capital costs of new plants will increase as we learn from mistakes made at Fukushima.

In 2010, mines supplied about 70% of overall uranium demand. For years the shortfall of mine supply has been met by sovereign stockpiles and secondary supplies, mainly thru conversion of Russian heavy enriched uranium into nuclear reactor fuel. Stockpiles and secondary supply are declining rapidly with the Russian program scheduled for termination in 2013. Most new sources of uranium are mined in unstable and corrupt countries that are unfriendly to the West and prone to supply disruption.

Nuclear energy is a cornerstone of world electrical output at 13-14%. The US, France, and Japan account for about 50% of this power.

Jadrové elektrárne

All facets of the worldwide nuclear power industry including sovereign companies, utilities, index funds, manufacturers and suppliers, and uranium producers, developers, and explorers were hit by panic selling and market turmoil in the past week. They likely will be strongly oversold and present good buying opportunities in the short term. In my opinion it is still too early to make a bottom call on the sector. However, putting in stink bids and patiently accumulating as the market rises and falls is always a legitimate strategy if you like the long term viability of an exploration or mining company.

Článok: www.uraniumseek.com/news/UraniumSeek/1300833790.php