Pozitívne leto pre komodity

Ceny potravinových komodít by počas leta mohli opätovne stúpnuť. Z dlhodobého hľadiska ich ceny vytlačí nahor kumulujúca sa inflácia.

That commodity is food. This summer has the potential to be a very big one for agriculture commodities. The price of everything – wheat, corn, barley, sunflower, etc. – are on the verge of going much, much higher.

We all know the long-term case for agriculture. The “Peak Soil” crisis is something we’ve followed closely here in the Prosperity Dispatch for a long time. The combination of declining crop yields from overused soil and rising demand from a wealthier and growing population.

I don’t think I’m going out on a limb and saying the long-term outlook for agriculture commodities and stocks is outstanding.

Today though, I want to focus on the short-term prospects for agriculture. More specifically, how two big issues could launch agriculture commodity prices back to last year’s highs and beyond.

Just like every other commodity, agriculture commodity prices are driven by supply and demand. The catalysts for agriculture commodities in this summer rest on the supply side.

The first factor is grain stockpiles. They’re at record lows. Corn is the perfect example. Corn stockpiles in the U.S have currently fallen to 33 days supply. That means if there was no corn production this year, the U.S. would be out of corn in a little over a month. This is the lowest on record since the old record of 34 days’ supply set in 2003.

It’s not just a problem in the U.S. though. The rest of the world is probably not going to make up for the shortfall. Allendale Inc, a commodities research firm, says, “Equally alarming is the lack of help from major world suppliers such as China, Brazil, Argentina and South Africa. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects the world end stocks 128 million tonnes, down 8.6% year on year. This would imply the world day’s supply of corn at 53 days, one day lower than the old record dating back to 1999.”

Sounds pretty bad right? Stockpiles are low and only another record-setting year of production will help ensure stockpiles remain at their current low levels. That’s where the second factor could create some real fireworks over the next few months in the agriculture sector.

Another bumper crop this year is highly unlikely. And it has nothing to do with farmers getting financing, fertilizer shortages, or anything which can be compensated for. The problem is completely out of control of the agriculture industry.

Článok:news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1243234800.php

26.05.2009