Strieborná bublina na nás ešte len čaká

Pravdepodobne najväčšia cenová bublina v histórii na nás ešte len čaká. Ak začnu davy ľudí participovať a vytiahnu cenu bieleho kovu do nám v súčasnosti nepredstaviteľných úrovní tak nastane čas, kedy obozretní investori vystúpia z hry.

Every ounce purchased for investment is one ounce less that is available today. After 60 continuous years of inventory destruction, there is very little silver inventory remaining. Every ounce purchased for investment purposes effectively shrinks the remaining inventory further. Compared to the mountain of money and credit available, the amount of available silver is miniscule. The 400 million ounces purchased by the ETFs over the past 3 to 4 years only amounts to $5.5 billion. That's nothing in terms of dollars, but immense in terms of metal. Future attempts to put equivalent amounts of money into equivalent amounts of metal will send the price to the heavens.

What is motivating this record silver investment demand? I think it is three things: the greatest quantity of investment funds available to purchase silver, the lowest availability of actual metal that can be purchased, and the growing awareness of what a great investment silver represents. Let's face it - in an investment world full of uncertainty and risk, there are not many assets that offer protection against total loss with exceptional profit potential. Silver can't go bankrupt or become worthless, but can and will soar to many times its current price.

Price bubbles are rare. We throw the term around quite loosely nowadays, having recently experienced two bubbles, the Internet stock bubble ending in 2000 and the housing bubble. But bubbles remain the exception, not the rule. There are some characteristics common to all bubbles. You have to start with a good underlying story or investment premise, like a brand new technology or a belief that housing prices only go up. The story is usually legitimate to begin with, but everyone gets carried away and higher prices eventually outstrip the underlying story. But the price rise creates fortunes for those that know when to exit. The silver story is more compelling than any prior bubble. So will be the overrun in price.

You can only have a bubble if large numbers of people participate and there is widespread borrowing to buy the bubble asset. At the end, people are buying only because prices are rising. I believe this will occur in silver and we must be ready to exit when that takes place. But the point is that we are so far away from these excesses that it's unnecessary to worry about them now. It is wise to put the coming silver super price bubble into proper perspective. We're not close to it yet.

And please keep this in mind - with no other bubble did we have these conditions; a large and concentrated short position, a looming physical shortage, a downward manipulation that might be attacked by regulators, the entry into the investment equation of the most populous nation on earth, and a prospective industrial user inventory buying panic. It is hard to imagine how silver won't be the largest bubble in history. You've just been given an invitation to participate beforehand.

Článok: mercatoliberonews.blogspot.com/2009/09/super-bubble-to-come.html

14.09.2009