Tri znamenia pre korekciu

Aj keď cena žltého kovu za posledné dni mala pozitívny výkon, je čas zamýšľať sa nad korekciou. Tri dôvody, ktoré môžu indikovať jej príchod: letné mesiaca sú pre zlato obvykle slabé; negatívna divergencia pohybu ceny zlata a akcií "zlatých" firiem; nové maximum zlata nebolo potvrdené novým maximom striebra.

Firstly, June, July and August are typically weak months for gold. The summer often sees one of the best entry-points (i.e. a low) of the year.

Secondly, even after the rally of the past few weeks, gold stocks are still trading below the highs of December 2009 and March 2008. That could simply mean that the stocks are currently a better opportunity than the metal. But that divergence can often indicate impending nastiness. It certainly did in the spring of 2008.

Thirdly, gold's highs are also unconfirmed by silver, which, at $19 an ounce, is still 10% or so off the March 2008 high of $21.50.

Now, I'm not too concerned about silver's comparative weakness. Typically, the ratio between gold and silver falls during good times and rises during the bad. For example, between 2003 and 2007, when credit markets were at their most buoyant, the ratio fell from 80 to 45 (so it would have taken 45 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold). In other words, silver was rising in price faster than gold.

This happens because, unlike gold, silver is as much an industrial metal as it is a monetary one. Its comparative surge in price was due to the fact that this was a booming period of speculation. Silver does well in such an environment.

22.06.2010