W - pohyb pre zlato?

Jednou z reálnych možností pre ďalší pohyb ceny zlata je v tvare písmena W. Ak sa tento pohyb udeje, tak pád bude mať veľmi rýchly priebeh.

The danger for gold, and for other precious metals too, is the overhang of the ETFs, which have been successful in drawing off huge volumes of investment money. Should a second sharp collapse in the markets occur there is the danger that, like in the first last October, financial institutions will be forced to offload and in effect put large quantities of the respective commodities - be they gold, silver or other assets held via ETFs - into thin markets. Now maybe gold will be more resilient in such a scenario than other commodities or stocks as it was last time, but maybe not.

One supposes that if one believes in the ‘W' double dip scenario then perhaps holding a significant proportion of assets in cash may be a wise move. Gold may be vulnerable, but perhaps less so than most other assets despite the big ETF overhang. Dealing with a reversal in the dollar's fortunes may be problematical for the individual investor - but then it may not happen. Only time will tell.

But markets are driven by sentiment - this now is positive, at least for the time being - so the current rallies could have a little time in them yet. But like judging the bottom, waiting for the top of a rally to sell is dangerous because when a major fall happens it tends to happen fast. Investors should keep a close eye on financial data and if it becomes truly apparent that the currently predicted continuing growth scenario is all hogwash be prepared to bail out of stocks and commodities into safer investments - or cash even. Whether gold is one of these safer investments remains to be seen, but it's probably better than the industrial metals should we continue in recession.

13.10.2009