Zemný plyn je stále lacný

V súčasnom období je cena zemného plynu ešte stále nízka. Predpokladá sa, že v strednodobom horizonte vystúpi nad US$10/mcf. Jedným z "motorov", ktorý potiahne jeho spotrebu a tým aj cenu bude Čína. (pozn.: vrátane aj uránu).

You can see that natural gas is cheap right now. And three main drivers will increase demand.

1. Domestically (USA), power companies are switching a large number of coal-fired power plants to natural gas. As electricity demand rebounds this year, natural gas demand will rebound faster than expected.

2. In China, coal comprises 70% of the primary energy. Natural gas only makes up 3% of its primary energy. Eventually, out of health concerns for its citizens, China will depend more heavily on the much cleaner alternative – natural gas.

3. Finally, Many national oil companies, like Venezuela's and Mexico's, have severely underinvested in their domestic oil production for years. As a result, they will suffer drastic production declines. Unless Iraq steps up its oil production in the next five years, we'll see "a catastrophic shrinkage in crude export availability." Natural gas can solve that problem, as well.

I predict these three macro factors will push natural gas to more than $10 per mcf this year. Natural gas is under $6 per mcf right now. It's time to be bullish on natural gas.

21.01.2010