Zlato $5000; striebro $200

Vrchol ceny zlata bude v horizonte 4-5 rokov niekde okolo US$5000/oz. Cena striebra dosiahne min.$200/oz (avšak nad US$300/oz reálnych). Býčí trh pre PMs by mohol skončiť okolo r. 2015-2016.

If you look at the last gold run, gold went from $200/oz. in mid-1979 to $800/oz. in early 1980. During the 10-year period of 1970–1980, we saw a 20-fold increase in the price, from $40/oz. to over $800/oz. We also had a 20-year low in 2001 of $250/oz. If you apply that 20-times multiple, you're up to $5,000/oz.

For silver, if you use the historic ratio of an exchange ratio with gold of 16:1, you get to $312, so $200 is conservative. I think we’ll see these numbers within four years' time.

TGR: You are talking about a 15-year bull market for gold and silver, starting in 2001 and ending in 2015 or 2016?

RM: Yes. I don't think prices will necessarily fall dramatically, but gold and silver will reach the zenith of purchasing power relative to other asset classes. When gold peaked in 1980, Volcker was channeling up interest rates. If you had rolled out of bullion into fixed income then, you would have made a tidy gain.

TGR: Are you predicting prices of $5,000/oz. and $200/oz. as spikes, or plateaus that they will reach, stay at and trade around?

RM: I think you'll have a spike at or above $5,000. Credit will become more expensive, and at some point credit will be denied. There'll be a need for liquidity, and the metals address that need.

Článok: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1313942400.php

22.08.2011