Zlato na $3400, možno až $6000

Podľa Citi FX Technicals môže byť rok 2012 obdobou roku 1978, kedy zlato zhodnotilo takmer 50%. Takýto pohyb by vyniesol cenu zlata na US$2300-2400/oz. V horizonte min. dvoch rokov je predpoklad dosiahnutia US$3400/oz. Pokiaľ by aj naďalej pokračovala dynamika vývoja obdobná rokom 1970-1980 (čo sa zatiaľ nepredpokladá), zlato by sa dostalo až nad US$6000/oz.

While we remain cautious on Gold in the near term and believe that we could correct lower towards $1,600 and possibly re-test the $1,550 area we continue to believe that the bull market remains intact. As with the Equity market we believe that 2012 may be reminiscent of 1978 when Gold rallied nearly 50% off the 1977 close. Such a move would likely put Gold in the $2,300-2,400 area in the 2nd half of 2012.

On a longer term basis we expect even higher levels and target a move towards $3,400 over the next 2 years or so. We are not yet on board with the idea of a move with the same magnitude as seen in 1970-1980 when the last spike in Dec 1979-Jan 1980 saw Gold almost double in price as Russia invaded Afghanistan. Such a dynamic would suggest a move above $6,000 but we prefer to take a more conservative stance and look for a move similar to that seen without that final event driven push at the high which was a “blowout top” in Jan. 1980.

Článok: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/citi-predicts-gold-3400-next-two-years

15.12.2011