Bavlna – stále lacná
Mnohé agri komodity mali v roku 2007 potešujúci výkon. Bavlna akosi stagnovala, avšak 2008 môže byť práve rokom bavlny, to už indikoval február.
Already two month into the new year, traders begin trying to figure out what trades will be the big winners in the as 2008 rolls on. Now, it’s not exactly breaking news that agriculture markets have basically been on fire for the last couple of years. Corn has skyrocketed on the back of huge ethanol demand, and soybeans, for that matter, have too.
Wheat exploded this year on poor global crops and much higher demand. So is the big bull run for grains over? No, it’s actually just getting started. While I think wheat, soybeans and corn will continue to do very well, another crop may do even better in 2008 — cotton.
Cotton futures have had a bit of a boost in the last few months that will likely continue during 2008 because of speculative fund buying in cotton. The price for cotton is still relatively very cheap.
Analysis of the farming regions in the U.S. indicates that all areas will have some reduction of cotton. The South will be affected the most.
Another factor to keep in mind is Mother Nature. Weather is always a major factor for any agricultural commodity, and it will be pivotal in determining final crop size, no matter what.
When we apply each state’s cotton yield in 2006 to its 2007 projected harvested acres, it generates a crop size of 20.5 million bales. At first glance, that’s not all that bullish, since it’s down only 1.2 million bales from the previous year’s number. But if we examine the numbers a little closer and look at history, we see crops are often subject to yield deviations — in other words, coming in less than expected.
When we look back over the past decade, a pattern of deviations is obvious. It suggests that under ideal conditions, 22 million bales would not be out of the question, while weather problems could also push the crop to the 18 million-bale range.
While first quarter demand might not be at the anticipated levels, there’s no denying that there will always be a demand for cotton. Clothing, home furnishings, and even medical supplying are all industries that rely heavily on cotton. If the weather influences the harvest the way many are predicting, the price of cotton could be the next great bull market in commodities. Gold and oil have had their day, but now the softer side of commodities could blanket some lucky investors with big gains.
Zdroj: MM
07.03.2008
