Cukor – potenciál pre rast ceny
Cukor po raste a následnej korekcii je opäť pripravený na cestu ďalšieho zhodnocovania.
Sugar prices surged on the back of good domestic and overseas demand. Good festive season demand in the domestic markets and export demand from U.A.E and Russia have driven market up. The largest producer of sugar in the world is Brazil with an annual production of around 34 million tons, India being the second with about 29 million tons of sugar, European Union standing at the third place with approximately 22.5 million tons. The international Sugar organization has estimated a higher global surplus of 10.800 million tonnes for the year 2007-08.
A Dubai company had last week contracted to buy 500,000 tonnes of Indian raw sugar over the 2007/08 crop year Higher oil prices raised the prospect of more diversion of cane for biofuel ethanol in Brazil. Expectations are that, as Brazil shifts focus to ethanol production, there are good chances of fresh exports enquiries coming to India.
Despite higher output and good carry over stocks, in the near term good export demand and low exchange warehouse stocks support sugar prices. The exchange warehouse stocks are under 2000 metric tonnes. Prices are widely expected to surge on the back of major festivals ahead. Average MACD is above the zero line of the indicator, suggesting the short-term bullishness of the counter.
Only a crossover of the average below the zero line would signal a bearish reversal again. RSI is in the overbought zone. Prices are above the short term 9 day EMA and 21 day EMA, supporting the short-term bullishness of the commodity. Therefore Sugar prices could test the resistance level and correct lower subsequently and find supports. Expecting more movements above 1268.
Investor a miliardár J. Rogers v nedávnom interview uviedol:
Q: Three years ago you were saying that one good way to invest in oil would be to buy sugar, because the high price of oil had driven up demand for ethanol in Brazil. Sugar went up but has pulled back. Where are the best opportunities in commodities right now?
A: Sugar doubled from there, but then it corrected. I would say the same thing again now: If you want to buy oil, you should buy sugar. Cotton is also a good way to buy oil - hear me out. Much apparel has been made from synthetics. Synthetics come from oil. So many textile makers are converting back to natural fibers because oil is at an all-time high. So if you want to buy oil, buy sugar or buy cotton.What I'm buying right now is agriculture. I'm bullish on all commodities, though.
Zdroj: commodityonline.com
26.12.2007
