Fundamentálne základy pre rast cien komodít stále priaznivé

Všeobecne sa očakáva, že ceny komodít začnú stúpať v druhej polovici 2007. Kažoročný výnos z investovania do komodít môže byť v nasledujúcich 3 rokoch okolo 7-8%.

Ceny kukurice a cukru môžu vzrásť až o 50%. Ceny drahých kovov sú podporované silným dopytom.


Credit Suisse says that it remains a long-term commodities bull, despite recent negative sentiment. The commodities ``super-cycle'' isn't over and prices may increase in the second half, led by gains in precious metals and agriculture, as the pace of global economic growth quickens, according to Credit Suisse Group.


Gold prices may match last year's 26-year high of $730 an ounce by the end of 2007, Philipp Vorndran, investment strategist at the Zurich-based bank's asset management unit, said by phone today. Corn, wheat and sugar may rise 50 percent in the next three years after falling by as much as 15 percent in the next three months, he forecast.


``Investors have been very pessimistic about commodities recently, but the fundamentals are in place for higher prices starting later this year,'' Vorndran said. ``The commodities super-cycle isn't over.''


Commodity prices, as measured by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, have gained 6 percent in the past month after falling to its lowest in almost two years. The index declined 7.4 percent last year, ending a market rally that started in 2001, as a rise in global inventories pushed prices for oil, copper and other raw materials down from records.


``Commodities will come under the spotlight again for positive reasons in the second half of 2007, if not sooner,'' the bank said in a statement today.


“Meanwhile, the picture is different for most other commodities, which have recently made gains - or at least held steady. Soft commodities have fared particularly well, while industrial metals - with the exception of copper - have held firm,” he concluded. “Precious metals have turned in a solid performance and prices continue to be supported by strong demand from jewelers as well as from financial investors. There are also constraints to the supply side as mining supply in South Africa is declining and central banks are reluctant to continue their gold selling programs. The combination of supply constraints and strong demand is key to our positive long term view of precious metals but even we were surprised to see such robust demand dynamics in the usually weaker first quarter of the year.”


Returns from commodities may average between 7.5 percent and 8 percent annually over the next three years, compared with forecasts from rival banks of returns of up to 6 percent, Vorndran said. Commodities could be a surprise performer in 2007, says Credit Suisse.


Source: InvestmentEx

19.02.2007

 
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