Komodity výkonnejšie ako akcie

Po prvý krát za 9 mesiacov výkonnosť komodít bola vyššia než akcií. Tento trendpravdepodobne bude aj naďalej pokračovať nakoľko Čína zvyšuje dovoz surovín.

Commodities prices are outpacing stocks and bonds for the first time in nine months and, according to many analysts, the quarterly rebound is likely to continue as China keeps increasing its imports of raw materials.

Oil, gold, soybeans and sugar for delivery at the end of the year are showing gains of at least 3.7 percent on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the Boards of Trade in Chicago and New York. That is on top of the 5.7 percent gain in the UBS Bloomberg CMCI index of 28 commodities in the year through March.

Looking at the supply and demand of most commodities, there is a lot "to be very bullish about," said Larry Kantor, co-head of research in New York at Barclays Capital, which told customers last week to buy tin, gold and corn. China has "a voracious demand for raw materials," he said.

Commodities benefited from China's increasing imports of copper, oil and construction materials. "Over the next three months, commodities could outdo shares," said Shane Oliver, a manager at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney. "China is importing heavily again."

The expansion in China's economy, which grew 10.7 percent in 2006, the fastest pace in 11 years, is still spurring demand for materials to build skyscrapers, bridges, roads, cities and cars. The Chinese government forecasts 8 percent growth for 2007.

China's imports of copper jumped 12 percent in February from a month earlier and were almost triple the level of a year earlier, according to the Customs General Administration in Beijing. Crude oil purchases rose by 8 percent in the month and palm oil by 20 percent, the administration reported.

U.S. stocks are likely to suffer from a slowing domestic economy, while European shares will be hurt by reduced profit growth, said Jane Drake, investment director at Tilney Investment Management in Liverpool, England.

Among the industrialized economies, rising prices for food, metals and fuel are likely to push up inflation, driving up manufacturers' costs and dashing speculation that central bankers from Washington to Tokyo would lower interest rates.

Fund managers say that inflation and a weakening real estate market are the biggest risks to stocks, according to a survey released last week by the Russell Investment Group in Tacoma, Washington.

"The bottom line for us is that commodities will outperform the other markets for the rest of the year due to serious problems in the equities markets," Christoph Eibl, a manager at Tiberius Asset Management, said. Investors in commodities so far this year are the biggest winners. As recently as January, after commodities lost money for the first time in five years, Goldman Sachs said the outlook for higher prices was "very much intact."

Source: IHT


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