Obavy z komoditného krachu narastajú
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"The strength of base metals is absolutely bewildering given that the US is falling into recession," said Stephen Briggs, a metals analyst at Société Générale. "America matters. There is economic contagion in Europe and it is spreading to emerging markets as well, yet people don't seem to care. They are taking no notice of the economic fundamentals, or they're betting that supply will continue to fall short even if demand slows. This is dangerous. Base metals are highly cyclical. Sentiment can change overnight," he said.
The "culprit" is the new breed of commodity index funds. Each week over the last two months, between $5bn and $10bn of fresh money has been pouring into the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index, and other funds, according to a UBS study. Together, the indexes now hold $200bn.
"Some commodities have leapt into the stratosphere over the last year: they've been pushed higher than the fundamentals merit," said John Reade, head of the UBS metals team. The buyers are typically big institutions such as Calpers (the California retirement fund), or the Dutch pension funds.
Článok:www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml
05.03.2008
