Potravinové komodity – svetlá budúcnosť
Podľa investora J. Rogersa najlepšou oblasťou na investovanie do budúcnosti sú potravinové komodity.
The recession maybe temporarily may cause a slowdown in commodity demand, but that makes the long term bull case even greater because if all of a sudden the commodity producers think, “Well, this is not real,” then they’re not going to go out and open that new zinc mine and they’re not going to go out and look for that expensive oil. They’re not going to spend a lot of the money they might have spent otherwise.
So it just prolongs the whole secular bull market. No, absolutely. You have corrections and consolidations in every bull market no matter what the asset. You always have. That’s the way markets work. Nothing goes straight up, Lindsay. You know that. So if commodities go down for a quarter or a year or two, it’s not the end of the bull market. As I said earlier, it’s probably going to make it even last longer.
Well, I’ve been buying the commodities in the recent past, a few weeks ago. I bought more ags, yes. Agriculture is the best place – one of the few places - where I would put money in the investment markets right now. I’d buy agriculture. I’d buy the renminbi, the Swiss frank, the Japanese yen, but beyond that, there’s not much I see that I would be buying. Agriculture’s still extremely depressed on a historic basis. There are very sound and strong fundamental changes taking place for the better.
People who say it’s going to go on for decades, I’m dubious, if you don’t mind my saying so because I mean, I’ve seen this before in bull markets and read about many of the bull markets. None of them have lasted forever. This one probably won’t either, but if it lasts another 10 or 15 years I’ll be quite happy.
Many academics and many consultants have demonstrated over and over again the best way for most people to invest in anything, stocks, currencies, whatever, is through an index. I’m not the first to come up with that and you either. That’s been demonstrated too many times. People who invest in indexes outperform 80% of active fund managers year after year after year.
So the best thing for most people to do is buy an index. I mean first do your homework and decide, “Yes, I want to buy stocks. Yes, I want to buy American stocks. Yes, I want to buy commodities,” whatever it is. And then if you decide you want to buy that asset class, the best way to invest, no matter what the asset class, is to buy an index.
Zdroj: commodityonline.com
03.02.2008
