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So let's think about this now. What happens when investors sell their currency (i.e. dollars) for commodities because they want diversification away from a devaluating currency. The answer is simple, the commodities rise in price and then people/economists get worried about inflation. So now we have investors around the world competing for a fixed amount of commodities. When investors buy a commodity index, they're effectively buying/storing a house full of food (wheat, corn, or soybeans), some barrels of oil, etc.

If you look at various commodities (crude, wheat, soybeans), you'll see the front month contracts are much higher in price than the back-end months. Why so much demand for the front month contracts? Could it be that investors are having a crisis of faith in the paper currencies and are fleeing to real tangible assets while inducing price inflation across the commodity complex?

Won't this just make life more difficult for the U.S. consumer/homeowner as more income gets sucked up in paying for food/energy causing even more problems with loan defaults/delinquencies (think credit cards here)?

But the bigger question I'm pondering is whether or not this price spike in commodities is a temporary spike after the safe haven flow stops. I think so, but I wouldn't want to be the Fed and have to bet on that, especially if it were to lower rates further and pour even more gasoline (Lowering T-bill rates further) on the commodity/safe haven trade.

Zdroj: CommodityOnline.com

13.03.2008