Akcie – odpredať alebo držať?
Bude aj tento rok platiť porekadlo odpredaj v máji a nakupuj až v septembri?
This weeks newsletter looks at the stock markets trend during the summer months and especially in light of the "Sell in May and Go Away" adage. Meaning to sell stocks during May with a view to buying them back again some time during September.
On a purely statistical basis the sell in May rule does not stand up as 60% of the time stocks can be expected to rise between May and the start of September, therefore if such a rule is to work it would need significant refinement.
Presently, the stock market rallies have continued into the start of May on the back of better than expected earnings reports despite rising inflation as evidenced by surging energy and food prices and a slowing economies.
Despite the most recent rally, the last 6 months have been bearish when statistically they were supposed to be the best 6 months of the year, leaving many stock indices lower by between 10% and 25%. This on face value would suggest that stocks should be be stronger during the summer months in light of weakness during the previous six months. However analysis of actual performance suggests that a weak November to April is followed by a weak summer.
Thus two negatives for stocks that seem to support "Sell in May and go away" for this year.
Zdroj: GoldSeek.com
06.05.2008
Watch in 2009 : GMO, LPSN, URZ, USU, SDA, GNVC, HNT, SRLM a mining juniors
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