DOW, DJTTR a S&P – prichádzajú medvede?
Podľa teórie Charles Dow-a by americké trhy mali byť na začiatku medvedieho trhu. Bude potom rok 2008 negatívny, alebo je to len technická pasca pred ďalším zhodnocovaním?
Dow Transport (DJTTR) v novembri prekonal spodnú hranicu z augusta, čo spolu s DJI signalizuje nepotvrdenie rastúceho trendu a pravdepodobný začiatok poklesu.
S&P (ale aj ostatné trhy) sa nachádza v štádiu veľkej volatility, čo z technického hľadiska reprezentuje prichádzajúci obrat, ktorý môže potrvať niekoľko rokov. V súčasnom období sa vytvára formácia „Triangel“, ktorá je akousi konsolidáciou pred následným rozhodným pohybom. Je ťažko presne povedať ktorým smerom sa vyberie, avšak berúc do úvahy TA, ako aj DJI a DJTTR očakávaný pohyb by mal byť smerom dole. Zreteľnejšie to bude v priebehu januára, kedy prelomenie buď jednej alebo druhej hranice predpokladáme.
The primary bear market confirmation that occurred on November 21 st when the Industrials confirmed the Transport's break below the August closing low remains in place in spite of the recent rally. In fact, the rally that began out of the November 26th low was anticipated and I stated before this rally began that it was going to cause many to question the integrity surrounding the November 21st Dow Theory primary bear market confirmation. That has definitely proven correct.
Robert Rhea, who was the leading Dow theorist in the late 1920's and 1930's stated: “Charles H. Dow never intended his theory of price movements to be construed as being a method whereby the royal road to riches could be found. While the principles laid down by him and developed by William Peter Hamilton may assist us in understanding something of security price trends, it would nevertheless be a fallacy to undertake any discussion of the subject without making the point very clear that no dependable method of beating the market has yet been discovered. Intelligent observation and study of the ever-recurring formations in the averages which Dow and Hamilton noted can, however, prove invaluable to both investors and speculators.”
It appears relatively clear cut through my eyes that the November 21 st Dow theory primary trend change is indeed signaling stormy business conditions just as Charles H. Dow suggested over 100 years ago. It is also relatively clear by the other non-confirmations discussed above that the Dow theory is once again more likely than not to also be correct this time around. This past Thursday Alan Greenspan raised the odds of a recession from 30 to 50 percent. It is my opinion we are already in a recession and the Dow theory is confirming it. Of course it seems that few believe the Dow theory. In any event, you have been warned.
Zdroj: G-Vision
30.12.2007
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