Investovanie do akcií ťažobných firiem

Vzhľadom na rast cien komodít sa na burzách čoraz viac objavujú nové firmy, ktoré investorom ponúkajú svoje akcie. Ako hodnotiť, ktorá firma má dobrý potenciál pre investíciu?

There have been a huge number of new mining listings over the last 3 years. This has been driven by the commodity price upswing, the opening up of new frontier regions previously considered ‘no go’ areas such as the Former Soviet Union and parts of Africa such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the delayed impact of the drastic slashing of exploration budgets by the majors between 1997 and 2002.

A key issue in theory in the valuation of junior depends on where it is in its lifecycle. In the chart the investment risk, shown in red, should fall over time while project value (in green) should increase, though of course at any stage it could fall to zero!

Key aspects to the information flow thus include:

The discovery of a deposit.

Proving it up under relevant definitions.

Upgrades to early estimates cause share prices to rise, and vice versa.

The progress in taking a resource into production.

News on environmental permitting and social issues.

Financial issues as the accuracy of cost and revenue projections improves.

Political risk issues

In practice the risk of mispricing of equities can be considerable particularly in illiquid and poorly researched markets. One of the most sensitive times for share price is when junior companies, whose still sets tend to lie in finding prospective assets try to turn the asset into a producing mine.

A wide set of factors determine success or failure at this stage.

Security of tenure.

Key characteristics of the ore body especially the grade.

Operating parameters of open pit vs. underground mine development.

Plant and metallurgy efficiencies, particularly in commodities that need to be separated out from by-products found in the same ore body e.g. PGE.

Logistics, particularly when a mine is located in a remote region.

Management record in developing projects to production stage.

Environmental issues that demand increasing amounts of company time and resource, covering not only the physical environment (where actual legislation will govern company requirements) but also the socio-cultural component .

All of these factors are made more complex when the company is operating in an unfamiliar emerging market region. Of course the overwhelming attraction of many emerging markets is the potential for the discovery of rich ore deposits which have remained untapped so far for political reasons. Risks are correspondingly higher with key issues in these regions including security of tenure, access to data, the availability and reliability of local infrastructure, the reliability of assaying, transport costs and operational logistics in far flung terrains which can be heightened by remoteness or extreme weather. The experience of the management team in operating in the region and their language skills can be a vital ingredient in mitigating some of the risk.

Estimates of profitability of a mine depend on cost and revenue projections but there are huge uncertainties associated with both of these. Currency movements further complicate the picture.

There are a number of approaches to valuing a mining company but each has drawbacks. For example comparison between companies of ounces in the ground depends totally on what kind of ounces they are and how much they will cost to extract. Similarly comparison of “comparable transactions” depends crucially on the transactions being comparable – often they fail to take into account differences in the resource or in political risk. Net Asset Value can be almost meaningless, while Net Present Value calculations depend on having an accurate estimate of the operational variables and an appropriate determination of the risk-free rate. Approaches by the major mining groups can gave an indication but even these can be distorted by the major’s strategic imperatives if, say it is adopting a portfolio approach to a particular location or if acquisition offers synergies.

The bottom line is that there is a high need for sensitivity analysis. Each deposit is unique, the data is often uncertain and there are enormous challenges to be overcome in turning ounces into real resources. Dr. Perrot-Humphrey’s conclusion is that there is no holy grail to valuation.

Potential investors should:

Check the track record of the company and board members.

Decide whether the medium term aim of the company is actually to mine or sell the company. Visit the site (in an ideal world).

Understand the major risks associated with the project.

Monitor the company’s progress tracking actual performance against promises made.

Know the right questions to ask.

Source: ResourceInv

17.02.2007